New revenue raising measures amount to R15 billion in 2019/20, mainly by not compensating for bracket creep, which effectively raises personal income tax and produces an additional R12.8 billion. Meanwhile, medical tax credits are not increased, which nets an additional R1 billion in tax revenue. Changes in the general fuel levy, the road accident fund levy and the introduction of a carbon tax on fuel result in a net increase of 29c per litre in the total fuel levy. Apart from increases in excise duties (which raise revenue by R1 billion) and the “sugar” tax, additional zero rating of VAT items reduces revenue by R1.1 billion. An additional R10 billion in revenue raising measures will be announced in the 2020/21 budget.
Overall, main budget revenue increases from 25.4% of GDP in 2018/19 to 25.9% in 2019/20. Consolidated revenue increases from 28.8% of GDP to 29.3% of GDP over the same period.
Main budget balances
Source: SA National Treasury
Note, in tandem with improvements in tax administration the revenue raising measures announced result in an increase in tax buoyancy (growth in tax revenue relative to GDP growth) from 0.98 in 2018/19 to 1.31 in 2019/20. But, tax buoyancy has surprised on the low side in recent years, suggesting an element of risk, especially if tax administration does not improve.